It started as just a stirring like a soft breeze that heralds a change of seasons. It picked up steam after a couple of government shut downs. It reached gale force when they tried to overthrow two elections with their reckless impeachment process. The gusts had reached hurricane force when their leaders, Newt Gingrich and Bob Livingston, were blown out the door. I'm talking about the winds of change that brought the GOP conservative revolution of 1994 to a screeching halt.
Gone are the "throw them the red meat", moralistic, laissez faire, trickle down anarchists that took over the party five years ago. Today party chieftains have switched to a more rational although oxymoronic "compassionate conservative" theme and have anointed the scion of one of their more prominent families to carry the banner in their desperate quest to recapture the White House.
These party chieftains have organized and promoted the most amazing money blitz this country has ever seen to ensure that George W. (Shrub) Bush wins the nomination and beats back the party's right wing zealots. George W. didn't have to use government phones or call the Chinese to raise his mind-boggling $36 million war chest. Presto! It just rolled in from everywhere. The word that "Shrub" was the man apparently lit up the boardrooms and club rooms and shook down big time cash. These guys make the Clinton money raising team look like a bunch of pikers.
For several months I have been predicting a Democratic landslide in 2000. With these new developments I had better take another look. The bandwagon the GOP big wigs have put together--an attractive candidate, plenty of money, a pleasing slogan-is rolling over all opposition on the road to the nomination and election. All this makes my prediction look somewhat ridiculous.
When the winds of change snuffed out their revolution, I thought the GOP would split into dozens of fighting factions, each one trying to convince the electorate that it was the most right wing of all. Each trying to be the most pro gun, pro life, pro military, pro ten commandments, pro family values, anti government, anti taxes, anti regulation, anti universal health insurance, ad nauseam.
Whoever would be left standing from this right wing free-for-all would be annihilated by the Democratic candidate in the general election.. This scenario has been side-tracked by the early coronation of George W. Now the Buchanans, the Smiths, the Bauers, the Quayles, the Forbes, the Hatches, et al will be fighting over meaningless primary votes while "Shrub" waltzes along above the fray with the nomination
This is what the GOP chieftains have planned. Things are not likely to work out that way. They rarely do. With all that campaign cash, George W. will probably win the nomination but the rabble will not go away. Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire has already bolted the party and several others might join a third party movement when they realize that the GOP primaries have already been bought and sold.
With this fractious 20 percent of the electorate supporting a third party candidate, the Democratic nominee will win easily in 2000. My Democratic landslide prediction still holds, although it is shifting in the wind.
